Analysts at JPMorgan predict “significant upside” for Bitcoin, arguing the cryptocurrency is trading below its fair value when adjusted for volatility relative to gold.
The report, published Wednesday, argues that Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted market cap remains disproportionately low relative to gold, even as the latter has rallied to new all-time highs.
“By taking into account the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, Bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold,” the analysts wrote. “Mechanically, that implies Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise by 67%, to a fair value near $170,000.”
The difference between BTC prices and gold adjusted for volatility.
Gold Volatility Makes Bitcoin More Attractive
Gold’s surge to record highs in October also brought a spike in its volatility — a shift that JPMorgan says has made Bitcoin more attractive on a relative risk basis.
Currently, the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio sits near 1.8, meaning Bitcoin carries about 1.8 times the risk of gold. However, as gold’s volatility climbs, that gap narrows, strengthening Bitcoin’s comparative investment case.
“This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for Bitcoin over the next 6–12 months,” the report noted.
At present, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is about $2.1 trillion, while gold’s market cap is estimated at roughly $15 trillion — highlighting how much room Bitcoin may have to grow if it continues to be treated as “digital gold.”
The bullish long-term view from JPMorgan contrasts with short-term caution from other analysts following Bitcoin’s recent dip below $100,000, a key psychological level.
Several investment firms have revised their 2025 Bitcoin forecasts downward after an October sell-off that triggered the largest 24-hour liquidation in crypto history.
Galaxy Digital cut its 2025 target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing macroeconomic headwinds, large whale sell-offs of over 400,000 BTC, and shifting investor sentiment.
Analysts now expect slower, more stable growth as institutional adoption and ETF-driven demand reshape Bitcoin’s market behavior.
The price of BTC fell below the $100,000 level and its 365-day moving average . : TradingView
“Bitcoin has entered what we call the ‘maturity era,’ where institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate,” said Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research.
Despite near-term uncertainty, JPMorgan’s $170,000 fair value underscores the growing belief among institutional analysts that Bitcoin is evolving into a mainstream asset class comparable to gold.
With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, increasing institutional participation, and growing recognition of tokenized real-world assets, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be entering a phase of steady institutional integration rather than speculative booms.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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