Global investment firm VanEck expects the first quarter of 2026 to mark a shift toward a more confident, risk-on environment for investors. According to the firm’s latest post, clearer fiscal conditions and reduced monetary uncertainty are creating a backdrop that favors higher-risk assets across global markets.
VanEck highlighted that US fiscal conditions are gradually stabilizing, even though deficits remain elevated. Importantly, deficits are declining as a percentage of GDP compared with pandemic-era highs. This trend is helping anchor long-term interest rates and lower the risk of sudden market shocks, providing investors with a level of visibility that has been absent in recent years.
The firm noted that markets are now operating with greater clarity around monetary direction, reducing uncertainty for capital allocation decisions. This environment is typically supportive of technology, artificial intelligence, and other growth-focused sectors. Crypto assets also tend to benefit during risk-on periods, although VanEck cautioned that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle showed unusual behavior in 2025, complicating short-term signals.
While broader sentiment is improving, VanEck suggested a more cautious near-term view on Bitcoin over the next three to six months. Analysts point out that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from equities and gold following significant deleveraging last year, making its short-term trajectory harder to predict.
Crypto investor Will Clemente commented that;
Despite near-term uncertainty, several market observers believe that favorable fiscal, regulatory, and monetary conditions in early 2026 could ultimately support a renewed advance in Bitcoin and other risk assets as confidence continues to build.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.