Bitcoin bulls may face a reality check as the cryptocurrency shows signs of a bear market rally similar to 2022.

After rising 21% since November 21, Bitcoin has reached around $97,900, but analysts warn that this rebound may not indicate a lasting recovery. The digital asset remains below its 365-day moving average, a key indicator for long-term trends, putting the cryptocurrency at risk of another bear market in 2026.

Bitcoin pulls back to $94,000

Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights that Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors 2022, when a 19% decline below the 365-day moving average triggered a bear market before a temporary rally. Today, Bitcoin is approaching its $101,000 yearly moving average, a level that represents strong resistance. Breaking above this trendline is seen as crucial for sustaining a bullish momentum.

BTC/USDT one-day chart (screenshot).

Data shows exchange inflows reaching multimonth highs, with a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC entering exchanges, signaling potential selling pressure. Analysts warn that higher inflows often precede price corrections, emphasizing caution for investors expecting a sustained rally.

BTC/USD comparison (screenshot).

The combination of technical and fundamental indicators suggests that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to downside risks. Comparisons with 2022 highlight that short-term gains may mask underlying weakness, and a return to levels near $65,000 cannot be ruled out if resistance at the 365-day moving average holds firm.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.

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