Experts Split as Institutional Adoption Accelerates but Market Risks Loom
The debate over Bitcoin’s future trajectory has intensified after David Bailey, a key crypto adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, claimed that a Bitcoin bear market is unlikely for several years. Bailey argues that institutional adoption is still in its early stages, suggesting massive upside potential for the leading cryptocurrency.
Institutional Interest Driving Optimism
“It’s the first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy-in,” Bailey stated, highlighting that banks, insurers, corporations, and pensions are beginning to allocate capital into Bitcoin. According to him, the market has only captured a fraction of its total addressable market, leaving room for significant growth.
Over the past two years, institutional exposure has surged through vehicles like Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, pushing total holdings above $100 billion. This strong demand narrative has fueled speculation that Bitcoin’s price could remain resilient for years to come.
Analysts Warn of Market Headwinds
However, not all experts share Bailey’s optimism. CK Zheng, co-founder of ZX Squared Capital, noted that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with traditional equities. “If the stock market moves into a bear phase, crypto will follow,” Zheng explained. While he sees a bear market as unlikely in the short term, macroeconomic shocks remain a risk.
Similarly, Pav Hundal, a lead analyst at Swyftx, warned that interest rate shifts or liquidity shocks could spark a correction. “The path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin, but that doesn’t mean a bear market is years away,” Hundal said.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle, with sharp corrections after bull markets. Ryan McMillin, CIO of Merkle Tree Capital, predicts a potential market top in 2026, followed by a mild downturn if global liquidity contracts. Still, McMillin also raised the possibility of no traditional bear market if institutional demand mirrors gold’s trajectory after ETF adoption.
While institutional adoption provides a strong foundation for Bitcoin, experts caution that macro risks, regulatory changes, and leverage cycles could still impact the market. The next few years may not bring a dramatic crash, but periodic corrections remain inevitable.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.