Analyst Says Elections and Central Bank Policy Have Replaced the Halving as Key Triggers
Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year market cycle is still intact, but the forces shaping it have evolved, according to recent market analysis. Rather than being driven primarily by Bitcoin’s halving events, the cycle is now increasingly influenced by political timelines, global liquidity, and monetary policy.
Historical price peaks in 2013 2017 and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, a pattern that aligns more closely with U.S. presidential election cycles than with the shifting calendar dates of Bitcoin halvings. Election years tend to introduce policy uncertainty, changes in fiscal expectations, and volatility across risk assets conditions that have repeatedly coincided with major crypto market turning points.
The current cycle is unfolding in a market dominated by institutional investors, whose behavior differs sharply from earlier retail-led phases. Despite recent interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has struggled to regain strong upward momentum as liquidity growth remains uneven and policy signals from central banks remain cautious. Slowing capital inflows have further limited upside pressure.
This shift suggests investors may need to rethink traditional timing strategies. Instead of focusing on halving dates, analysts emphasize monitoring elections, fiscal policy debates, and central bank liquidity conditions. In this framework, Bitcoin’s cycle persists — but it now reflects the realities of a maturing, macro-sensitive asset class rather than a purely supply-driven phenomenon.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.