From Panic to Accumulation: BTC Surges Amid Global Repricing of Risk
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed over 130% in the past 12 months, rebounding from its $49,000 low triggered by the unwind of the yen carry trade in August 2024. Now trading above $114,000, the cryptocurrency’s rally mirrors a broader global repricing of macroeconomic risk.
One year ago, Japan’s pivot to tighter monetary policy caused global bond yields to spike, undermining the popular yen carry trade and sparking a flight from risk assets — including Bitcoin.
Long-Term Holders Signal Strong Conviction
According to Glassnode data, long-term Bitcoin holders—those who have held coins for 7 to 10 years—now control over 8% of total BTC supply, double the level from August 2024. This deepening conviction among veteran investors is seen as a bullish indicator of sustained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Macro Backdrop: Rising Yields and Mixed Asset Surge
Bitcoin’s rise comes as bond yields, equities, and gold all move higher, indicating both risk-on and defensive asset demand:
- S&P 500: +24% YoY
- Gold: +40% YoY
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: Rises to 4.2% (from 3.7%)
- U.S. 30-Year Yield: Now 4.8% (from 4.0%)
- U.K. 30-Year Yield: Jumps to 5.3% (from 4.3%)
- Japan 30-Year Yield: Surges to 3.0% (from 1.9%)
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to just under 100, down from 103, adding fuel to Bitcoin’s ascent amid weakening dollar strength.
Why It Matters
The ongoing shift in global monetary policy, inflation expectations, and long-term asset allocation strategies is boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as both a hedge and a high-yield investment.
In Short
Bitcoin’s sharp recovery from last year’s panic reflects not just crypto-specific optimism but a broader macroeconomic transformation. As traditional and digital assets surge together, Bitcoin’s growing institutional base and long-term holder concentration signal strength in a volatile global market.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.