Ethereum (ETH) has recovered from recent lows, but analysts warn that without fresh institutional interest, the token may struggle to break above the $3,800 mark.
Derivatives and ETF Data Signal Caution
Despite a 9% price rebound from $3,355 to $3,666, Ethereum futures and options data remain neutral to bearish. The ETH three-month futures premium sits at 5%, hovering near the threshold that indicates investor skepticism. Even last week’s brief rally toward $3,900 failed to trigger bullish momentum in derivatives markets.
Institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $129 million between Wednesday and Friday.
Ethereum Lags in Decentralized Finance Growth
The total value locked (TVL) on the Ethereum network dropped 9% over the past 30 days, settling at 23.8 million ETH. Meanwhile, competing blockchains like BNB Chain (+8%) and Solana (+4%) experienced growth in their DApp ecosystems.
Although Ethereum still holds a 59% share of global TVL in USD terms, the shrinking ETH deposits raise concerns among investors.
Options market sentiment has also cooled. The 25% delta skew, a key indicator of trader positioning, hit 6% on Saturday, marking a neutral-to-bearish outlook. This reflects a lack of demand for bullish call options, even as the broader altcoin market attempts to recover.
Prices on institutional platforms like Coinbase and Kraken are trading at a discount compared to Binance and Bitfinex, signaling reduced interest from institutional buyers. In contrast, earlier in July, premium pricing suggested active accumulation.
Without significant inflows or a macroeconomic catalyst, Ethereum may remain range-bound below $3,800.
Broader Headwinds Weigh on Outlook
Persistent global trade tensions and uncertainty in the U.S. labor market are adding to investor caution. Analysts note that stockpiling due to import tariffs may have artificially inflated economic data, causing traders to question the sustainability of the current environment.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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