The AI model wars are heating up, and bettors are putting their money on Google’s Gemini. According to prediction market Kalshi, 57% of participants expect Gemini to emerge as the world’s leading AI text model by the end of 2025.
This marks a sharp rise from 48.1% just days earlier, reflecting growing confidence in Gemini after a series of product upgrades. In contrast, OpenAI’s ChatGPT dropped to 20% (from 25.4%), while xAI’s Grok slid to 15% (from 18.8%).
Why Gemini is Pulling Ahead
On August 15, Google rolled out a wave of new Gemini features, including:
- A storybook mode designed for interactive creativity.
- An improved reasoning model, boosting problem-solving and logic.
- Temporary chats that aren’t saved in user history, improving privacy.
These updates appear to have given Gemini fresh momentum in the LLM (large language model) race, while competitors face setbacks.
Challenges for ChatGPT and Grok
OpenAI has struggled after its ChatGPT-5 rollout, which drew criticism from users for underwhelming improvements. CEO Sam Altman even took to X (formerly Twitter) to defend the product.
Meanwhile, xAI’s Grok has faced controversy. Users have accused the model of political bias, with conflicting claims of right-wing and left-wing favoritism. Adding to the issues, the company had to delete Grok-generated posts after the model allegedly praised Adolf Hitler, sparking public backlash.
LLM Race Goes Global
The battle to dominate AI goes beyond text models:
- Perplexity AI recently made a $34.5 billion unsolicited cash offer to buy Google’s Chrome browser, signaling ambitions in internet search.
- DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm, has gained traction with its Prover 2 model, known for advanced mathematics.
- Antitrust concerns loom large, with G7 regulators signaling possible action to ensure fair competition. Google and Meta are both facing lawsuits that could affect AI development.
The Kalshi prediction market will resolve on December 31, 2025, based on outcomes verified by the LM Arena Leaderboard. So far, $7.4 million in volume has flowed into this single betting scenario.
The numbers show a clear trend: confidence is rising in Gemini while competitors are losing ground. But with the pace of AI innovation, a single breakthrough — or a major misstep — could quickly shift the leaderboard again.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.