Analysts remain divided as competing frameworks produce sharply different fair-value estimates
A new analysis comparing a dozen valuation models suggests that Ether (ETH) may be priced below its long-term fair value. Yet one influential framework offers a stark counterpoint, reinforcing the debate over how to measure the economic fundamentals of a decentralized network.
According to Ki Young Ju, who examined 12 commonly referenced models, nine indicate that ETH is undervalued at current levels near $3,000. A composite average places “fair value” around $4,836, implying substantial upside under traditional network-activity assumptions. Most of the models — eight in total — also received above-average reliability scores, reflecting their roots in academic or finance-sector research.
Several frameworks offered especially bullish readings. An application-capital model, which evaluates the value of all assets issued on Ethereum — from stablecoins to NFTs and tokenized real-world assets — produced a fair value near $4,918. A network-effects model based on Metcalfe’s Law placed ETH even higher, estimating value around $9,484 by scaling activity with user growth.
Layer-2 activity also played a role. A valuation approach accounting for TVL across Ethereum’s scaling ecosystem estimated fair value at $4,633, pointing to deepening reliance on rollups.
But the picture isn’t uniformly optimistic. A Revenue Yield model — ranked as the most reliable under the methodology used — argued the opposite, placing fair value far lower at roughly $1,296. That framework ties ETH’s worth to network revenue relative to staking yield, and its bearish result reflects muted fee generation and rising competition from alternative chains.
With valuation models producing such wide disparities, the debate over how to measure Ethereum’s intrinsic worth remains very much unresolved.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.