Traders see a growing chance that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried could receive a Trump pardon, though legal experts remain highly skeptical.
Polymarket Odds Spike Following CZ’s Pardon
The crypto prediction platform Polymarket has seen a surge in bets that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could receive a presidential pardon from Donald Trump, with odds jumping from 5.6% to around 12% in just 12 hours.
Polymarket odds of SBF being released from custody in 2025. : Polymarket
The spike came shortly after Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao received a presidential pardon, fueling speculation that SBF might follow. Over $6.5 million has been wagered in Polymarket’s “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” market, including more than $300,000 bet directly on Bankman-Fried’s chances.
A related market on whether SBF will be “released from custody in 2025” briefly climbed to 19.1% before stabilizing near 15.5%, underscoring renewed speculation among crypto traders.
Legal Barriers and Political Reality
Despite the market optimism, legal experts and industry insiders consider an SBF pardon highly unlikely. Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, stemming from the collapse of FTX in 2022.
While SBF’s legal team has filed an appeal, most observers agree that no major developments are expected before year’s end, leaving a presidential pardon as the only realistic route to early release.
“I’d be truly shocked if the Trump administration pardoned SBF,” said crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky. “He was a Democratic mega-donor before FTX’s collapse. His name is half punch line, half curse word in DC. Not a single serious person wants this.”
The discussion was reignited after CZ’s four-month sentence was effectively dismissed by Trump’s pardon, prompting debates over whether SBF deserves similar treatment.
Analysts were quick to highlight the vast difference in their offenses. CZ was penalized for violations of anti-money-laundering (AML) laws, while SBF was found guilty of stealing and misusing billions in customer funds.
“Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers,” said Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law. “His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.”
Trump defended his decision, saying he was told CZ “did nothing wrong” and was “persecuted by the Biden administration.” Notably, CZ is also a key backer of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform, suggesting political and business interests may have influenced the decision.
While Polymarket traders are speculating on a potential SBF pardon, most legal experts dismiss it as fantasy, citing the severity of his crimes, political baggage, and lack of public support.
Still, the 12% betting odds highlight how quickly crypto market sentiment can shift — especially in a year when politics and digital assets are more intertwined than ever.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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