Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, and Unemployment Rate Shape Dollar and Gold Outlook
The latest U.S. labor market data delivered a mixed but market-moving picture, as wage growth met expectations, job creation slowed, and the unemployment rate declined. These figures are closely watched by investors because they directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, the U.S. dollar, and gold prices.
The Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month rose by 0.3%, matching the forecast and improving from the previous 0.1% reading. This confirms that wage inflation remains persistent, an important signal for the Federal Reserve as it monitors inflation risks. Stable wage growth at elevated levels tends to support the U.S. dollar by limiting expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts.
The Non-Farm Employment Change came in at 50K, below the 66K forecast and lower than the 64K previous figure. This highlights a cooling pace of job creation, suggesting that economic momentum in the labor market is slowing, even as wages remain firm.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, beating expectations of 4.5% and improving from 4.6% previously. This decline indicates that labor market conditions remain relatively tight, offsetting some concerns raised by weaker payroll growth.
Overall, the data presents a balanced narrative: softer job growth may pressure the dollar, while steady wage growth and lower unemployment provide underlying support. For gold, the mixed report encourages short-term volatility, with prices reacting to shifting rate expectations rather than a clear directional trend.
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