Long-Term Adoption Model Sees Bitcoin Evolving Beyond a Trading Asset
Global asset manager VanEck has presented a long-range valuation framework suggesting that one bitcoin could be worth approximately $2.9 million by 2050. Rather than offering a short-term price target, the analysis explores how bitcoin’s role could expand over the next 25 years as adoption deepens among institutions and sovereign entities.
At the core of VanEck’s base-case scenario is the assumption that bitcoin gains traction as a global settlement tool, potentially facilitating 5% to 10% of international trade transactions. Alongside this, the model assumes that central banks gradually allocate a small share of their reserves to bitcoin, driven by long-term diversification away from traditional sovereign currencies.
These assumptions mark a major shift from current realities. Today, bitcoin plays a negligible role in trade settlement and is not held as a reserve asset by major central banks. VanEck acknowledges that regulatory clarity, political acceptance, and operational infrastructure would be critical for this transition to occur.
Under this framework, VanEck estimates annualized returns of roughly 15% through 2050, while also projecting high long-term volatility between 40% and 70%. Despite this, the analysis suggests that small portfolio allocations of 1% to 3% have historically improved risk-adjusted returns, reflecting bitcoin’s distinct behavior relative to traditional assets.
VanEck’s outlook underscores a central idea: bitcoin’s future value depends less on speculation and more on its potential structural role in the global financial system.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.